by Joseph Sithole
Harare

In what can best be described as a shock result, President Robert Mugabe and is ruling ZANU-PF party are about to announce victory for Mugabe in the
parliamentary and presidential elections

centres.But sources within the ZEC centre - newly christened the National Collation Centre - say Mugabe clearly lost the election to his opposition rival Morgan Tsvangirai, polling only 20 per cent of the vote. He is also said to trail Simba Makoni who garnered 28 per cent. Tsvangirai is said to be leading but just failed to get the requisite 50 per cent plus one vote. According to ZANU-PF sources at the collation centre, DEC is about to announce that the ruling party won by 111 seats, with some rural constituencies recording huge victories for Mugabe. The sources said in Mugabe's traditional strongholds, such as Uzumba Maramba Pfungwe, he won with huge margins of more than 30,000 votes, with Movement
for Democratic Change, MDC, president Tsvangirai getting as few as 2,000
votes.

But commentators say it would be something of a miracle if Mugabe and his
party had secured the victory, given more than 85 per cent unemployment,
serious food shortages and a collapsed health delivery system.

IWPR could not get the exact percentage by which Mugabe will be said to have
won but the sources said there would not be a run-off, as ZANU-PF will claim
Mugabe has clinched more than 50 per cent of the total number of voters
cast.

Some of the ruling party's heavyweights that have fallen include Minister of
Women Affairs Oppah Muchunguri, Agriculture Minister Joseph Made, Justice,
Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Patrick Chinamasa, Minister of
Energy and Power Development Mike Nyambuya, and Information Minister
Sikhanyiso Ndlovu.

The supposed election results, if ZEC goes ahead to announce them, are
likely to be condemned locally and internationally. The election will be
viewed as stolen because of voter intimidation and allegations of vote
rigging.

There are already reports coming from the United States saying sanctions,
currently targeted at Mugabe and his close associates, would be intensified
if the ballot were not free and fair. The same is likely to come from
Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other western countries.

But what is more worrying now is how Zimbabweans are going to receive the
result, especially after the MDC has been saying it has won this election
beyond any reasonable doubt.

Zimbabweans cast their votes at the weekend amid indications the poll was
already stolen, with reports of stuffed ballot boxes being discovered in
Mashonaland Central and Masvingo provinces. The opposition parties and
independent candidates had already alleged that Mugabe was going to rig this
election to avoid a humiliating loss.

The MDC last week uncovered gross irregularities in the voters' roll,
showing thousands of voters supposedly living on what turned out to be open
ground. According to the voters' roll, 65 per cent of voters registered in
Harare North live on a piece of land that used to belong to the Ernest
Kadungure housing co-operative.

However, upon visiting the area, the MDC found that it was one of the areas
where shacks were demolished during Operation Murambatsvina, when the
government destroyed homes in areas that were perceived to be MDC
strongholds.

The Pan-African Parliament, PAP, at the close of voting on March 29, raised
concerns with ZEC chairman George Chiweshe.

In a letter to Chiweshe, PAP Election Observer Mission leader Marwick
Khumalo said it saw no evidence that there were any residents in Ward 42,
which is deserted land with a few wooden sheds, despite voters from that
deserted ward being listed on the voters' roll. The Crisis Coalition of
Zimbabwe, CCZ, has said whatever the outcome of the results of the general
elections, the process will not be a true and legitimate expression of the
democratic will of the people of Zimbabwe.

CCZ spokesman McDonald Lewanika said civil society in Zimbabwe deplored the
recent comments by service chiefs saying that they would not accept the
election of any presidential candidate but Mugabe.

Army commander Constantine Chiwenga and head of the prison services retired
Major-General Paradzai Zimondi announced they would not salute anyone but
Mugabe, while police chief Augustine Chihuri said he would not accept an
opposition victory.

Lewanika also condemned statements by Mugabe, who has been using threatening
and intimidating language in speeches to the electorate.

In Bulawayo, Mugabe told a rally that voting for the MDC would be a waste of
time and that he would not allow the opposition party to rule Zimbabwe.
Tsvangirai said in an interview recently that if Mugabe won the election,
it's dead end for the country.

Once-prosperous Zimbabwe is suffering from the world's highest inflation
rate of more than 100,000 per cent, chronic shortages of food and fuel, and
an HIV/AIDS epidemic that has contributed to a steep decline in life
expectancy.

Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of an IWPR-trained journalist in Zimbabwe.